Tupelo, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected into next
  weekend, capable of producing localized heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s
  to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

GOES Water Vapor satellite indicates an upper-level low located
over east Texas, with a plume of low level moisture advecting up
from the Gulf into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southeast U.S. The latest surface analysis shows a weak quasi-
stationary boundary located over portions of the Ohio and Lower
Mississippi Valleys. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show scattered
rain showers along and west of the Mississippi River, and numerous
rain showers near the Tennessee River. Cloudy skies prevailed
across the Mid-South late this evening with temperatures ranging
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Ample low-level moisture is expected to lead to the redevelopment
of low stratus across the area overnight. Patchy fog is possible
east of the Mississippi River where temperatures are approaching
saturation in some locations. Short-term model trends indicate
the best coverage for rain showers overnight will be across areas
mostly along and north of I-40. Overall, rainfall amounts are
expected to remain light, generally 0.10 inch or less. Coverage
will become more isolated to scattered by Wednesday with overall
shear remaining very weak and a lack of synoptic systems over the
area.

Long range model trends suggest an increase in showers and
thunderstorms across the area late week into the start of next
weekend as a strong northern stream shortwave trough pushes a
cold front into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Confidence in the timing of drier air returning to the area
remains low with the GFS being the outlier as Canadian and ECMWF
solutions favor a slower and continued wet pattern across the Mid-
South through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Messy TAF set will remain this issuance as an upper low and
surface front influence the weather over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Off and on -SHRA will continue impacting terminals over
the next 24 hours or so. Fog is also expected overnight amidst
narrow dewpoint depressions and saturated soils. IFR and pockets
of LIFR conditions are also expected to continue filtering in
across the airspace. Conditions look to slowly improve to MVFR
shortly after sunrise and eventual VFR by the afternoon hours.
Given the messy pattern we`ve been in, there is a chance that we
don`t lift to VFR conditions in the afternoon, however,
confidence was not high enough in this evolution to prevail MVFR
through the day. Light northeast winds will shift more southeast
by the end of the TAF period. Fog and MVFR, potential IFR,
ceilings are expected once again Wednesday morning.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable
future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through at least the end of the weekend as a wet and unsettled
pattern persists across the Mid-South.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH